The Kremlin has confirmed the fact that they have yet to receive any official documents by the United States regarding the reported 28-point peace plan designed to end the conflict in Ukraine even though Kyiv has accepted that there is a draft document and has indicated that it is willing to work. Reuters+2Al Jazeera+2
What did the Kremlin has said
An official from the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, declared that even though Moscow knows of the ideas being debated at Washington, “nothing substantive is currently being discussed” and no formal proposal has been transferred to Russia. Newsweek+1 The official further stressed that any peace agreement must be able to address the what Russia believes are the “root causes” of the conflict. Reuters
Peskov was also adamant of the Ukrainian government’s space for maneuver is decreasing as Russian military developments are continuing, and called on Kyiv to begin talks “now rather than later”. Reuters+1
The peace plan that the US has drafted and the reactions
While the US has provided an outline of the framework for Ukraine, Russia says it is not involved in discussions. According to several sources, the framework includes numerous controversial elements, such as Ukraine acknowledging Russian the sovereignty of Crimea in the Donbas and limiting its military forces, and denying the membership of NATO. Al Jazeera+2Newsweek+2
Kyiv’s government has stated that it has received the draft and is examining it carefully but it also confirmed it’s “red lines” — sovereignty, territorial integrity, as well as the right to self-defenseare not negotiable. The AP News+1 AP News+1 European allies have expressed concern and have argued that any deal should include Ukraine as well as Europe together as partners and not only a bilateral agreement between the two countries. Newsweek+1
The significance of Moscow’s statement
Russia’s assertion that it did not receive a formalized plan adds credibility to a variety of factors:
Moscow’s determination to being considered an equal participant in the resolution of conflicts, not just an outsider’s recipient.
It suggests that Russia has the benefit of ambiguity, and avoids the commitment of a proposal until it is officially committed.
It gives Russia the chance to frame any agreement as one it agreed to instead of one that was forced upon which will strengthen its diplomatic position.
In the case of Ukraine along with its allies the lack of an official Russian response impedes the possibility of transitioning from idea to negotiation. This raises the question the following: Will Russia be willing to engage only when the conditions are appropriate? Does Ukraine be negotiating out of force or desperate since its options are limited?
The way ahead
In the real world the three tracks are now standing out:
Formalisation What happens if it is likely that the US is going to issue a complete formal document and engage Russia directly, rather than negotiating quietly through Kyiv.
Participation: whether Ukraine and Europe can decide or accept the terms rather than accept the terms.
Implementation and incentives: If Russia (and Ukraine) will be provided with guarantees, sanctions relief or other incentives to begin serious discussions.
If Moscow does not respond until a formal proposal is made the window for negotiation could shrink, particularly when military conditions or pressure from outside make Ukraine’s hands move. If, on the other hand, Washington takes action quickly and quickly, it may influence Russia’s decision or even bypass the Russian leadership completely.
Conclusion
Russia’s assertion that it hasn’t heard any official information by The United States on the draft peace plan doesn’t necessarily suggest that negotiations can’t begin however it could mean that any agreement is not likely to be reached until Moscow becomes a fully recognized participant. The next few days could decide whether the 28-point framework can be used as a basis for negotiations, or an unrequited document that is which is ignored by a few parties or a reworked blueprint beyond the outline that is now publicly available.