In a shocking claim made during the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting in South Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that he successfully averted what could have turned into an entire conflict in the region between India and Pakistan and Pakistan, by threatening both countries with punitive trade measures should tensions remained. Reuters+2The Daily Star+2

According to Trump’s remarks Trump claimed that South Asian rivals were on the brink of war, citing an incident that involved “seven planes” being downed during a tense confrontation earlier in the year. He also stated that he intervened, advising the leaders of both nations to be aware that the United States would impose 250 percent tariffs on them in the event of them not stepping down. Reuters+1

what is Trump’s claim
In his address, Trump framed his intervention as decisive

He assured India’s prime minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan’s leadership that war “should not happen”. Geo News

Trump stated that his U.S. threatened to disrupt trade relations severely, saying, “We can’t trade with countries firing missiles.” The Economic Times

His actions–not just diplomacy, but had prevented a “bad nuclear war” between the two nuclear-armed nations. The Daily Star+1

Responses and a reality check
While Trump’s statement has garnered attention, the truth is more complex. Indian officials have publicly resisted the idea the U.S. trade threats played an important part in the ceasefire or de-escalation. They claim that Indian diplomacy and military operations helped to bring the peace. The Economic Times+1

Similar to that, Pakistani voices have expressed gratitude to any mediation, however, the country hasn’t confirmed the precise assertions of tariff threats described by Trump. The contradicting stories suggest that, while U.S. involvement was recognised but its precise role was not clear.

the reason this is important
The claim has significance due to various reasons:

The influence of diplomacy If this is the case this would indicate the rare case that trade diplomatic efforts directly impacting military conflict between two powerful powerhouses.

South Asia’s volatile The theatre between India and Pakistan is a constant source of conflict, and the possibility of a war scenario between nuclear-armed states is very alarming. This assertion highlights the closeness of the region to an escalation this time.

U.S. credibility and strategy The assertion of Trump that as the United States not just as mediator, but also as an effective deterrent in the region, though the degree to which this is consistent with the actual U.S. policy remains a issue of debate.

potential implications
In the future, several matters are worth watching:

If official documents or diplomatic cables confirm Trump’s claims of tariff threats and seven planes shooting down.

What is the best way for India and Pakistan react: will they contest or affirm or affirm the U.S. role publicly?

If this is the precedent for trade-based deterrence as a method to prevent conflict in other areas.

The wider regional impact: if U.S. is positioned as an honest conflict-fighter, that could affect the future behavior between India and Pakistan, but it could create a sense of dependence or resentment when the claim is seen as a flimsy assertion.

Conclusions and thoughts
The claim by President Trump that he halted the outbreak of conflict that would have been fought between India and Pakistan creates a dramatic narrative into the tense South Asia security situation. The extent to which his assertion is in line with the truth remains to be determined, but the fact is that the conflict between India and Pakistan in the spring of this year was alarmingly close to an escalate. Since both countries are nuclear-armed, and historically vulnerable to war, any successful involvement of a third party in preventing war has profound regional implications.