India has expressed serious alarm at what it perceives as a growing “convergence of interests” between three of its neighbors – Pakistan, China and Bangladesh–particularly with regard to security, regional influence and economic cooperation. Indian officials suggest this new alliance could threaten New Delhi’s strategic standing within South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
Indian defense and foreign policy analysts report recent developments as evidence of an increasing trilateral understanding among India, Myanmar and Thailand – particularly regarding areas like military cooperation, infrastructure development and regional diplomacy. India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval recently addressed this topic privately in a closed door briefing and advised his audience that they “must remain alert to shifting balance of power in the region where adversarial coordination could morph into more formal strategic blocs”.
Concerns have arisen due to several high-profile engagements in recent months. China has substantially deepened its defense and economic ties with both Pakistan and Bangladesh, while Islamabad and Dhaka have made diplomatic overtures towards improving bilateral ties despite historical or political grievances between them.
Pakistan-China relations, long considered “all-weather,” continue to blossom with multibillion-dollar projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an integral component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese naval presence at Gwadar Port as well as cooperation in defense manufacturing with Pakistan have raised alarm in New Delhi.
Bangladesh’s increasing ties with Beijing’s strategic vision is something new; China has become the country’s biggest trading partner and supplier of military equipment such as submarines, naval vessels and fighter jets. Analysts in New Delhi predict this economic dependence could have long-term ramifications for Indian influence in the region.
Indian officials are closely following the recent Pakistan-Bangladesh diplomatic thaw. A series of meetings between senior diplomats and defense officials suggests a willingness to move past past tensions and explore areas of mutual cooperation such as trade, security and regional connectivity.
“These developments are far-reaching,” stated Dr. Arvind Menon, senior fellow at the Indian Council for Strategic Affairs. “Pakistan, China and Bangladesh’s coming together-whether intentional or organic-is an unprecedented challenge to India’s regional primacy.”
India has since begun adjusting its regional outreach. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is reported to be intensifying diplomatic efforts to engage Dhaka again and revive stalled bilateral projects, while increasing naval presence in the Bay of Bengal and strengthening partnerships with countries such as Japan, Australia, and the U.S. under Quad agreements in order to balance China’s growing influence.
Foreign policy experts in Islamabad and Beijing view India’s concerns as overblown, as evidenced by statements made by spokespersons for both nations’ respective foreign ministries: China cooperates with South Asian countries based on mutual benefit and development without targeting any third party; Pakistani analysts assert that India’s regional anxiety arises from its inability to accept multipolar South Asia.
Though no formal alliance between Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh has yet been announced, signs of alignment among them should cause Indian policymakers to worry. With strategic relationships continuing to shift across Asia, India now finds itself in an ever more complicated and competitive neighborhood which puts its diplomatic agility and defense posture to the test.